Monetary Policy Works Quicker Than Fiscal? 1

Monetary Policy Works Quicker Than Fiscal?

Reasons for the above mentioned are as follows. There’s a popular idea which operates thus currently. Ergo fiscal stimulus should be employed in order to raise demand to a sufficiently large extent that central banks have to raise interest rates to damp down some of that demand. Hey, presto: central banks can then cut interest rates come another tough economy. For an example of that sort of thinking to see the second paragraph of an article by Simon Wren-Lewis (Oxford economics prof) entitled “Could austerity’s impact be persistent”.

Now there’s an apparent flaw in that argument, the following. If fiscal stimulus is a “reliable” way of raising demand, why not merely use it for an extent that slashes unemployment to its minimum feasible level (NAURU if you want) and leave it at that? I.e. why implement EXCESS fiscal stimulus so that rates of interest have to be artificially raised, which of course means that home buyers need to pay an artificially higher rate of interest?

Having said that, there are a true variety of possible excuses for the latter bizarre plan, and the pros and cons of those excuses are a little complicated. Nonetheless, it is argued below that those excuses do not stand scrutiny really. So, if you would like to just get the BASIC message of the article (as within the above heading) then stop reading now. In contrast, if you’re thinking about the latter excuses and some of their cons and pros, continue reading. Monetary policy works quicker than fiscal?

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If interest rate adjustments worked especially QUICKLY, there might be something to be said for the above-mentioned “high interest” policy. But according to a Bank or investment company of England article, interest rates take a year to have their full effect. Another potential argument for the high interest rates is that fiscal changes take too much time because they have to wait till politicians have spent months arguing about them before they can be implemented.

Well that just is not true: during the recent crisis in the UK trim and then elevated the sales tax VAT and all without politicians (in addition to the UK’s financing minister) creating a say in the problem. Go back to “normal” interest levels? Yet another discussion for raising rates of interest is that the current low rates are unusual by historical requirements, ergo, for unspecified reasons, we have to return to “normal” interest rates.

Well a large problem with that idea is that quite possibly the rates of interest which have prevailed going back centuries roughly have not been normal whatsoever: they’ve been artificially high. And the explanation for suspecting that is that interest rates have without doubt been boosted by the vast amounts that governments borrow.